Pedosphere Research, vol. 5, 2025, no. 1: 49–61
Original paper
THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FIELD CROP YIELDS IN THE DANUBIAN LOWLAND
Jozef Takáč, Jaroslava Sobocká, Pavol Bezák
National Agricultural and Food Centre – Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Corresponding author: RNDr. Jozef Takáč, PhD. National Agricultural and Food Centre, Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Trenčianska 55, 821 09 Bratislava, Slovakia,
e-mail: jozef.takac@nppc.sk, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-4923-4601
Citation: Takáč, J., Sobocká, J., Bezák, P. (2025). The consequences of climate change on field yields in the Danubian Lowland. Pedosphere Research, vol. 5: 49–61. NPPC – VÚPOP 2025, ISSN 2729-8728. http.://doi.org/10.64122/j.pedosres.2025.05.04
Abstract
The assessment of the consequences of climate change on crop yields in the Danubian Lowland was based on numerical simulations using the agroecological model DAISY. Effect of gradual increase of CO2 concentration was taken into account for yield simulation. Emission scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the MPI general circulation model of the atmosphere MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR were applied to assess the impacts of climate change on crop yields. Numerical simulations were performed for the period 2025–2100 with a series of daily values of global radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and atmospheric precipitation near Hurbanovo in the southeast of the Danubian Lowland. Simulations were performed at the level of water-limited and nutrient-unstressed crops. Soil horizons of the soil profile were defined several soil properties in five dominant soil types – Chernozems, Luvisols, Fluvisols, Chernic Phaeozems and Phaeozems. Several interesting results are presented. According to the scenarios, cereal yields were higher by more than 20% compared to the period 1991-2020. In the case of summer crops (maize, sugar beet, potatoes), a decrease in yields was simulated in all scenarios compared to the reference period. For all crops, an increase in the variability of simulated yields was found according to the scenarios compared to the reference period. Depending on the soil type, the highest yields, except for maize, were simulated on Chernic Phaeozems. Of the crops evaluated, the highest number of days with water stress was simulated for sugar beet.
Keywords: climate change, soil types, crop yields, water use efficiency, available soil water content